Posted by: jbarnesca | November 6, 2014

SCE RAM 5 Winners and Losers

Today (11-5-2014) the most important SCE listing of winners and losers in the FINAL RAM 5 RFO were announced.  In all categories they awarded 330.5 MW in this last RAM RFO that is approved by the CPUC.

SCE RAM 5 Results

For solar my calculations of the biggest total portfolio winners are:

  • GCL-Solar Reserve   75MW
  • Infigen Energy          55MW
  • NexEra                       60 MW

Twenty 0ne contracts of all types were awarded with 16 being solar.  The leading companies in solar with offers were EDF Renewables with 10, Sustainable Power Group with 8, and GCL-Solar Reserve with 7.  There were 53 offers that passed all screens for possible selection.

SCE RAM 5 offers

If you study the submission list you can easily determine the Real large solar developers in the CA market at this time.  This is Advice Letter 3128-E and should appear on the SCE advice letter site in the next few days.

With regard to winning pricing, one should note that the continuing decrease in the TOU table pricing would make a winning bid in this RAM 5 offering worth less than the prior RAM 4 offering.  The summer full capacity deliverability factor went from 2.77 to 2.64 for instance.  Also groups had to consider the effects of tariffs on Chinese modules into the picture for their bid prices.  Generally the rumor is that the high bids were limited to about $0.072/Kwh.

 

 

Advertisements

Responses

  1. I was always curious about how solar developers make profit with that low RAM PPA price. I used to hear that IRR of solar farm for 20 to 25 years is around 12 to 15% but, only with that PPA price, I don’t think it is achievable and even they may lose money instead of profit. Does REC still play in RAM? Does a solar developer make profit when PPA combines with REC? I just worry that if that low PPA price is only income source from solar power plant, solar industry will be faded away because distribution generation side is under big pressure and utility side is with really low PPA.

    I’am really enjoying your writings since I am very interested in renewable energy industry. I really thank you a lot for your dedication to valuable information and news. I am look forwarding to your further writings!

    • Mr. Yang, Indeed the utility and other developers of >1MW ground mount not NEM projects are having to adjust to PPA winning bids in CA in the $0.065/KWh range. In Texas the larger developers are adjusting to the $0.05/KWh range. The unlevered IRR now is moving down to the 6% or so range. The is still some movement downward on labor costs and EPC profit margins and a little movement on inverters and some on modules from the best in class companies.


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

Categories

%d bloggers like this: